Welcome to EGamersWorld.
We continue to follow the action at LEC Winter 2024 as the regular season heats up. So far 10 teams are fighting for the play-offs, where 8 teams will qualify.
Already in the play-offs the main prizes will be awarded, which are 80,000 euros and two slots to the important tournaments of the 14th professional season: Mid-Season Invitational 2024 and LEC Finals 2024. Among the contenders for passage are Vitality and Rogue.
Let's try to figure out who will be stronger in the face-to-face confrontation between Vitality and Rogue and improve their position in the standings, and who will have to continue their performance with an additional loss in their pocket.
Let's go.
Rogue Form
We open the match analysis with an analysis of Rogue's playing form. In this match the team will play as favourites, and the odds on Rogue to win are at around 1.8.
Rogue has a very interesting position at LEC Winter 2024. The fact is that the team missed all of 2023 and only returned to the competitive League of Legends in the run-up to 2024. This is, in principle, a very logical decision, because in 2022 Rogue showed high results.
First, they proved themselves at LEC Spring 2022, reaching the Grand Final of the Spring Split. Then G2 stepped in and prevented Rogue from ending the season with a triumph.
However, fortune proved favourable in the next European league. At LEC Summer 2022, Rogue finished top-3 in the group stage, and then played a pretty tough play-offs: a 3-2 win over MAD Lions, a 0-3 loss to G2, a small final win over Fnatic, and finally an undisputed championship with a 3-0 win over G2.
Rogue visited Worlds 2022 in October the season before last. They were not expected to make it to Worlds 2022, but Rogue exceeded many expectations by making it to the play-offs. At the end of the tournament, the team finished in the top 8, which is an absolute success for European residents.
- Rogue line-up: Szygenda, Markoon, Larssen, Comp, Zoelys.
In the new season the core of Koi plays for Rogue, which is quite logical, because the club absorbed the slot of the Spanish organisation.
In the first match, Rogue will meet SK Gaming. I expect a win in the first match for the "new" team within the LEC. Next - the game against Heretics and here it will not be easier than in the match with SK: "Heretics" look good, and their roster is probably one of the most combative in the new LEC. In the end Rogue Ledge and Heretics beat G2 Esports, who are considered to be the main favourites for the tournament, but then lost to SK Gaming.
The first week Rogue went 1-2, which is not good, but not critical.
Rogue's most popular champions
Ornn (4 games, 25% wins), Gangplank (4 games, 100% wins), Gnar (4 games, 50% wins), Gwen (4 games, 50% wins) were equally at the top.
Wukong (4 matches, 75% wins), Vi (3 games, 33% wins), Trundle (3 matches, 33% wins) played in the forest.
Azir (6 matches, 66% wins), Taliyah (4 games, 25% wins) played on the centre.
ADC position was closed with Kalista (5 matches, 40% of wins), Ezrael (3 matches, 66% of wins), Sivir (3 matches, 66% of wins).
Renata Glasc (3 games, 33% wins), Rakan (3 matches, 100% wins), Nami (2 matches, 100% wins) were selected.
Vitality Form
We continue to watch the Rogue vs Vitality match with an overview of the form of the latter. In this match, they will have to play as the number two team, with odds to win around 1.9.
Vitality is a rather questionable team. They showed a rather unstable game throughout last year. Globally speaking, their 13th season was a failure, and a serious one at that.
They started last season by participating in LEC Winter 2023. In the regular season, Vitality went over the heads of their opponents: they played it 7-2 and then went to play the group stage, where they had much less luck. So much so that Vitality failed to get out of their basket, Ledgeiv SK Gaming and KOI. As a result, the top 5.
Next up was an appearance at LEC Spring 2024. This was Vitality's best split where they managed to make it to the top 3. However, that was enough for exactly nothing: just Top 3.
The last tournament last season for Vitality was LEC Summer 2023. And it was a total fiasco: Vitality had their worst performance of the year, going 1-8 in the regular season and finishing the split in the top 10.
- Vitality roster: Photon, Daglas, Vetheo, Carzzy, Hylissang.
The team has a pretty strong lineup, but the realisation is Vitality's kryptonite.
In the first match of LEC Winter 2024, Team Vitality will play against GIANTX, where I see problems for the Bees. I think EXCEL's peppy core will give Vitality a boost. And so it happened. And later, two more defeats happened, against Fnatic and Team BDS.
Vitality played the first week with the score 0-3 and became the worst team in terms of gold difference. In general - total anti-records so far.
The most popular Vitality champions
The most frequent guest on the top line is Jax (2 matches, 100% wins). Also picked by KSante, Gnar, Gwen and Ornn, Renekton and Gragas. Ornn and Renekton, who didn't quite hit the season 13 meta, lost their matches.
Bo predominantly played as Vi. One of the most meta characters of the season appeared in spades 4 times and won all his games. There was also Sejuani and Maokai (2 games and 1 win each).
On the centre line, Azir was the favourite character (3 games, 100% wins). The Croatian also played Ryze, Syndra, Cassiopeia, Tristana, LeBlanc and Taliyah. Only Tristana and LeBlanc lost.
Of the shooters, Zeri (3 games, 66% wins), Ezreal (2 matches, 100% wins), Varus (2 games, 100% wins) appeared most often. Caitlyn and Sivir peaked once each: the former won her game and the latter lost.
Of the supporting characters, Yummi (3 games, 33% wins), Ashe (2 games, 100% wins) played three times. Leona, Braum, Nami and Lux won once each.
History of head-to-head meetings between Vitality and Rogue
Previously, the teams played each other in the distant 2022. Then Vitality could not impose the struggle Rogue.
Predicted result of the match Rogue - Vitality at LEC Winter 2024
I don't expect an evenly matched match. I don't understand how bookmakers are giving such close odds after we've seen the first week of matches. Overall, I believe in a Rogue win, and I think they will do it easily.
Bottom line: Rogue wins.
